For more information view the SAGE Journals Article Sharing page. In the United States, the U.S. Census Bureau counts the baby boom as lasting from July 1, 1946 to July 1, 1964 (Colby & Ortman, 2014). Piketty (2014), Milanovic (2016), and Atkinson (2014), among others, have noted that economic inequality declined during much of the 20th century only to begin rising after 1975. Average annual population, GDP, and per capita GDP growth rates are shown for selected countries for the period 1945 to 1975 in Table 6. To measure MFP, it is necessary to determine the value of total output (GDP) and the contribution of the combined inputs, capital and labor, with MFP calculated as the amount of output that can be obtained from a unit of the combined inputs (OECD, 2016, pp. Geographic regions vary somewhat across the tables according to whether the data are from the Maddison project (World Economics, 2016) or the World Bank (2017). Wealthier countries have healthier populations for a start. Even such widely decried technological innovations as those created by genetic engineering can give rise to crop varieties that require fewer chemical inputs and reduce the impact of agriculture on the environment (Hamilton, 2009). In the future, these children will enter the labor force and economic growth should increase. The rate of population growth and the number of people living on earth have both increased spectacularly since the beginning of the nineteenth century. Members of _ can log in with their society credentials below, This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (. From 1000 to 1820, average annual population growth in England was about 0.29% while per capita GDP growth averaged 0.12% for an overall average annual economic growth rate of 0.41% according to data from World Economics (2016). These countries have annual per capita incomes of $12,476 and above according to World Bank data. There is an extensive literature on these relationships but little consensus on the actual effects of population on economic growth (Heady & Hodge, 2009). MFP and per capita economic growth are distinct concepts but may be correlated, in part, perhaps, because the same variable (GDP) is in the numerator of both. I begin in chapter 26 with a discussion of the normative foundations of economic analysis, namely, the subject of welfare economics. Data on productivity are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2016) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD; 2016, 2017). Because the difference in population growth to 2200 between the UN-high and -low scenarios is comparable to a 1.4 percentage point constant difference in population growth, we show in SI Appendix, Fig. This dividend could be diminished if countries in sub-Saharan Africa do not complete the demographic transition to lower population growth rates in coming years. Fig. Please enable it to take advantage of the complete set of features! A major purpose of Malthus’s essay was to argue against the English Poor Laws. After his death in 2010, researchers at the Groningen Growth and Development Center launched an initiative known as the “Maddison Project” which seeks to maintain, refine, and update Maddison’s original data set (The Maddison Project, 2013). U.S. and EU immigration pressures in the long run, The effect of population growth on economic growth: A meta-regression analysis of the macroeconomic literature, Built up by the oil boom, North Dakota now has an emptier feeling, Population and economic growth: A simultaneous equation perspective. In contrast, Yao, Kinugasa, and Hamori (2013) and Banerjee (2012) conclude that there is a negative relationship between population and per capita GDP growth in China and Australia. This product could help you, Accessing resources off campus can be a challenge. Yoo (1994) develops three models to examine the impact of this increase in population growth on U.S. economic growth. In the case of natural resources, it is expected that technological innovations will be directed toward creating substitutes as the resources become scarce and their prices rise. S6 that the difference in optimal policy under TU between these population trajectories is similar to changing the rate of pure time preference from 0.1% to 1.5%. For example, total world population in 1960 was 3.04 billion rising to 7.35 billion in 2015, a period of 55 years. Immigration increases the working age population thereby easing the burden of supporting a large elderly population. He argues that rapid increases in average incomes in poor countries combined with greater migration could reduce the citizenship premium and the level of global inequality but recognizes that allowing greater international migration is controversial and likely to be resisted strongly by many in high-income countries. The part not explained by these inputs, the “Solow residual,” is often referred to as multifactor productivity (MFP). All other countries are considered to be low- and middle-income countries. First, if Piketty’s analysis is correct, slow economic growth may continue to be a factor in rising inequalities in the distribution of income and wealth. GDP is a measure of economic output and is also an indicator of national income which can be defined as total output net of capital depreciation plus net income from sources outside the country (Piketty, 2014, p. 45). The demographic transition consists of an initial phase during which both crude birth and mortality rates are high and population growth is slow. Conservation practices such as no-till farming which can reduce soil erosion and chemical runoff, precision farming which allows more exact applications of chemical fertilizers and pesticides reducing the quantities required, and other environmentally benign management practices have been widely adopted around the world without significant sacrifices in total food production or farm incomes (Derpsch, Friedrich, Kassam, & Hongwen, 2010; Thakur, Kassam, Stoop, & Uphoff, 2016; U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2016). In these models, rapid population growth leads to smaller amounts of capital per worker slowing economic growth (Bucci, 2015). The quantity, quality, structure, distribution, and movement of a population can help or hinder the rate of economic development. There may be limits to the ability of market forces and technology to overcome potential resource constraints or to protect such environmental goods as clean air and water but it would be wrong to think that human ingenuity is completely impotent when it comes to creating a sustainable environmental future without severe population reductions. The burden of supporting a large number of retired people could be eased if population growth were higher in these countries but it does not appear likely that fertility rates will increase in the future or that mortality rates will fall much below current levels. In fact, per capita GDP growth in the EU outpaced that of the United States where economic growth would have averaged 2.41% instead of 3.04% if the U.S. population had increased at the same rate as that of the EU. There appears to be some agreement among economists not only that productivity growth has slowed since 2000 in high-income countries but also that there is little prospect for a reversal of this trend. A different type of dependency problem exists in many African countries where relatively small working-age populations are required to support the very large number of children who have important educational and health needs. These higher growth rates meant that Piketty’s inequality, r > g, was reversed contributing to a reduction of the concentration of capital and declining levels of inequality. With net migration at two per thousand people, the EU did realize a positive population growth rate of 0.2%. Population growth affects many phenomena such as the age structure of a country’s population, international migration, economic inequality, and the size of a country’s work force. There is some migration among the low- and moderate-income countries but the main flows are to Europe and North America as well as such regional magnets as South Africa. The U.S. Census Bureau (2017) estimates that crude birth and mortality rates in the EU are about equal at 10 per thousand people suggesting that the natural rate of population growth is zero. There exists a close and reciprocal relationship between population growth and economic development in a country. Connor (2016) suggests that economic growth in these countries and the availability of short-term work visas have attracted large numbers of migrants with the number of foreign-born residents growing by 61% between 2005 and 2015. The relationship between education and population has attracted the attention of both scholars and policymakers, especially since the mid-1970s. Foreign-born residents make up 51.1% of the population of Bahrain, 73.6% of the population of Kuwait, 88.4% in the United Arab Emirates, and 32.3% in Saudi Arabia. The emerging Asian economies are catching up with the high-income countries, registering significant growth in per capita GDP with population growth contributing relatively little to overall economic growth. Declaration of Conflicting InterestsThe author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. On the other hand, if population growth affects per capita output growth, higher population growth rates would contribute to either higher or lower overall economic growth depending on the nature of its effects on per capita GDP. High-income countries, in contrast, registered slower growth after 2000 than in the preceding decade. Shackleton (2013) estimates that average annual growth in U.S. MFP over the period 1870 to 2010 was between 1.6% and 1.8% which is about the same as average annual growth of per capita GDP over that period (1.8%) based on the Maddison Project (2013) data. In China, for example, average annual population growth between 1990 and 2015 was only 0.76%, perhaps as a result of that country’s former policy of limiting families to one child, while average annual per capita GDP growth was 8.72% for an overall economic growth rate of 9.48% per year.
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